基于实物期权的电动汽车研发项目价值研究——以TESLA为例

Evaluation of Electric Vehicle R&D Project Based on Real Option Theory —In the Case of TESLA

  • 摘要: 为评估当前电动汽车研发项目的价值,用实物期权方法处理了项目的不确定性,建立了基于BS期权定价公式的电动汽车研发实物期权模型,用该模型对典型案例TESLA的研发投资项目价值进行了计算,验证了TESLA研发投入的合理性.研究表明,用实物期权的方法较好地处理了电动汽车研发项目的不确定性,并体现了决策柔性的价值,因此比使用净现值法更合理.计算显示,一个在典型情形下的高端电动汽车研发期权价值为2.3亿美元左右.

     

    Abstract: To evaluate the electric vehicle (EV) R&D project, the uncertainty of the project was handled with real option theory (ROT), then an electric vehicle (EV) R&D project valuation model was built based on Black-Scholes option pricing formula. TESLA was studied with the model as a typical case, and its R&D expenditure was verified. Studies have shown that ROT method can handle the uncertainty of EV R&D projects preferably, and can reflect the value of the flexible decision; therefore it is better than net present value (NPV). Numerical simulation shows that a high-end EV R&D project's value is around 230 million in a typical situation.

     

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