一次性作用产品可靠度的Bayes置信下限
Lower Bayes Confidence Limits for the Reliability of One-Shot Products
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摘要: 针对高价值一次性作用产品的小样本可靠性评估问题,选用带有k因子的先验分布,基于贝塔分布的双层先验分布,以及基于均匀分布的双层先验分布,研究了一次性作用产品的可靠度置信下限的估计方法.由模拟研究得出,在有历史数据时,基于k因子贝塔先验分布的估计方法比WCF方法精确;在有不完全历史信息时,基于贝塔双层先验分布的方法比基于均匀双层先验分布的方法精确.Abstract: Lower Bayes confidence limits of one-shot products with little present data are discussed, using three kinds of prior distributions: Beta prior distribution with k factor, double prior distribution based on Beta distribution and double prior distribution based on uniform distribution. Through analysis and study, it is concluded that the result using Beta prior distribution with k factor proves to be better than that of the WCF method, and that double prior distribution based on Beta distribution is better than double prior distribution based on uniform distribution.
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