“已实现”β系数长记忆检验及建模预测研究

    On the Realized β Coefficient Long Memory Testing and Prediction Modeling

    • 摘要: 基于信息更丰富的高频交易数据,应用一种新的时变茁系数计算方法,对上海证券交易所交易的A股股票的日β系数进行实时估计,并使用长记忆随机波动模型检验了“已实现”β系数长记忆特征且对其进一步建模预测。实证结果表明,上证指数的“已实现”方差和个股同上证指数间的“已实现”协方差都具有显著且相似的长记忆特性,个股的β系数普遍不具有显著的长记忆特征;分规模分行业预测结果表明,ARMA(2,1)模型在建模预测方面存在优势;预测精度对于每一个模型都有随着组数(即规模)的

       

      Abstract: This paper estimates one day β coefficient of shares in shanghai stock exchange, tests realized β coefficient long memory characteristics and makes a model to predict further with long memory stochastic volatility model, based on a wealth of highfrequency transaction data which have more information, and using the new calculated application of time-varying coefficient β. Shanghai Stock index shows that both realized covariance and the realized covariance between individual stock and shanghai stock index have significant similar long memory characteristics, but the β coefficient of individual stock does not have significant similar long memory characteristics generally. The predicting results of sub-scale and sub-sector show that ARMA (2,1)model has the advantages in forecasting with model; prediciting accuracy will decrease when the group (or scale)grows; but in general for conservative industries, predicting accuracy is better than some high-tech industry.

       

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