Abstract: A “cognition-behavior” framework was constructed to analyze China’s automotive industry catch-up under “lagging behind” and “leapfrogging” scenarios, clarifying government behavior logic and key influencing factors. The findings reveal: (1) In the lagging-behind scenario, the government adopts a patchwork cognitive system, selects state-owned enterprises as catch-up agents, and follows a technology pathway from introduction to independent innovation, eventually integrating both. This shifts the market from closed to semi-open. (2) In the leapfrogging scenario, the government employs an integrated cognitive system, consistently pursuing independent innovation and transitioning the market to a fully open state. (3) Effective industrial catch-up relies on an efficient information processing system as an internal foundation and a “strong government–strong market” embedded relationship as an external condition.