Abstract:
China's economy has already entered the "New Normal" phase, during which some new characteristics of energy consumption, energy intensity and carbon emissions that are different from those of the past three decades may emerge. In this paper, these new characteristics of China's energy consumption and supply are defined as energy "New Normal". In the context of the energy "New Normal", the development of China's energy economy during the "13th Five-Year Plan" and by 2030 is predicted. Besides, from the perspectives of changes in energy intensity and carbon emissions, a scenario analysis has been performed to forecast the changes in energy consumption and CO2 emissions by 2030. The results suggest that, in the benchmark scenario and the low-carbon development scenario, under which the regulations on energy saving and emissions reduction are tighter than expected, the peak of carbon emissions would occur before 2030.